Season 2: #3 A Clear and Present Danger

When Trump moved into the White House, the neighbourhood went bad. To survive the civil war next door, Canada needs a plan.  It starts by understanding the weaknesses of the enemy.

Transcript

2          Trump: The Clear and Present Danger

My generation, those of us who enjoyed juicy political gossip, remember a story from 1965. The Vietnam war was raging. Prime Minister Pearson was in Washington. The evening before he was to meet with President Lyndon Johnson, he delivered a speech in which he criticized the Vietnam war. The next day, he met LBJ. On arrival, the President grabbed him by the collar, lifted him, shook him, and yelled at him: "You pissed on my rug!”   

Our friend and neighbour has long been a challenge.

Later, Pierre Trudeau compared Canada’s U.S. relationship to a mouse sleeping with an elephant. Mostly, the elephant doesn’t even acknowledge the mouse exists. But every grunt and twitch by the elephant is a mortal threat to the mouse.

One time, when working for the CBC, I interviewed The Washington Post editor on why his paper hadn’t even mentioned a political crisis in Ottawa caused entirely by the U.S.. His response: “I called my Toronto desk. There is no news in Canada this week.” 

The point is, most of the time Canada is barely noticed by Americans. When we were, it was usually a bad thing. Being ignored is better. Americans since World War II took Canada’s unquestioned support for granted. On economic and cultural issues, Canada is bullied. That defined the awkward relationship between neighbours until the re-election of Donald Trump. With that re-election, suddenly Canada is on the enemies list. A trade war is the opening salvo. When Trump moved back into the White House, the neighbourhood went bad. 

For Canada, it is essential we stand firm against Trump. It will be painful. It is already painful. Canada faces a war from a direction that was unexpected.  Canada took pride in sharing the longest undefended border in the world. Our treaties bound us in marriage. Now, Canada is being treated like an abused spouse, and must learn to defend itself. Seen in terms of military strategy, Canada must offer deterrence, avoid direct conflict, demonstrate a willingness to counter aggression, and flank and distract when possible. 

There is a positive impact that may come from the Trump aggression on tariffs, on his demands for military and border spending, or from his talk of the 51st state. The positive result is a renewal of Canadian unity which, aside from the extreme right in Alberta and Saskatchewan, is holding firm. Even Quebec is suddenly patriotic. This unity may also lead to an openness to new ideas, including constitutional renewal. That is, if Canada survives the present danger.

A tactical response to Trump must first consider how he operates.  In business, he has evaded consequence by cheating his creditors. He has used lawfare to postpone consequences. Politically, he “floods the zone” with lies and Executive Orders to the point that opponents are overwhelmed. He is a master of distraction as an explicit strategy. The media and opponents follow his words like cats chasing a laser dot, pouncing on distractions, never catching up to reality.  

Trump is bolstered by decades of media-bashing by conservative interests.  Regardless of what is often parroted by right wind pundits, the mainstream media have never leaned to the left. The reality is that freedom of the media belongs to those who own the media. The tech oligarchs, like Musk and Zuckerberg, now control the algorithms that determine what people see and believe, and they have joined the extreme right. Corporate media, and right-wing owners such as Rupert Murdock and Conrad Black, have always dictated priorities to their outlets. It is getting worse all the time, as social media with no professional or ethical standards dominate the war for the attention of younger generations. Even The Washington Post, The New York Times and corporations like Disney have surrendered to Trump, dismissing contributors who offend Trump. 

Responsible journalists try to adhere to high standards. The Associated Press is an example, So, too, are most public broadcasters. But independent journalism struggles to make a profit.  Pundits and entertainers have no such concern for accurate facts, since that is not how their results are measured. The irony is that having compromised principle for profit, the traditional media that relied on readers and viewers for income have neither.  They are now drowned out by the flood of lies and disinformation that flows from the algorithms of the social media tech gods.

In the midst of all this confusion, some predictions seem inevitable. The United States will suffer inflation, mass unemployment, and a re-occurring threat of insolvency. Government services will fall apart. The justice system will be a tool of revenge. Armed MAGA supporters will intimidate and assault critics. There is no response to buyers’ regret. In the 2026 mid-term elections, Democrats will gain, but nothing will change. America will be isolated. In short, the end of the American dream will come, not as a blockbuster event, but through America-noir cliff-hangers, episodes in a dark series that never seems to end.

In this mad environment, the essential first step for Canada to survive is to identify which threats are real, and to focus on them.  Distraction is the enemy. The first line of defense is the Canadian information ecosystem, where truth is already the first casualty.   

Consider the Trump lies. There were no waves of criminals and terrorists crossing the Canadian border. Hordes of refugees do not use Canada as a staging ground to enter the United States. Canada was never a major source of fentanyl. There is no unfair trade balance, no American subsidy of Canada.  All these were distractions, designed to weaken Canada.

By contrast, the flip-flop tariff war is real. Canadian products and raw materials have for decades been sold to the United States, and vice versa, part of an integrated economy based on binding agreements. Everyone knew that a tariff war would hurt businesses and consumers on both sides of the border.  Trump assumed Canada would be divided, weak, and eager to make concessions. That, so far, is a miscalculation. Canada will suffer, but may come out stronger.

In fact, Trump is inadvertently forcing Canada to look for ways to better achieve the goals of peace, order, good government, and a sustainable planet.  He forces Canada towards self-sufficiency. He forces Canada to become more efficient. He forces Canada to pursue an independent defense strategy. 

Canada must survive until the American people themselves throw out the MAGA scoundrels.  The demolition of American government institutions will harm the very people who voted him in. Discontent is inevitable. So long as elections are held in the United States, there is hope.  That, by itself, not a certainty. Yet even if democracy prevails, the damage will take years to repair.

History, however, offers proof that democracy can triumph. There is room for optimism. The American voters did throw out a similar set of charlatans in the 1890’s.  During much of the 19th century, political power swung between radical populists and the Gilded Age super-rich. These are the same two groups that make up the Trump coalition. Neither cares about good government. Only when unions were energized, and the Progressive movement gained strength, did the cycle of misery end. 

The American unions, allied with other progressive movements, did it in again the 1930’s. They were a key in electing FDR, and to the New Deal that modernised American government after the Great Depression and World War II. 

Canada must have faith that the Americans pendulum will once again swing back to democracy and to the American dream.  The union movement is now a shadow of its former self.  Defeated by globalism, the working-class dream has died. Trump promised change.  The MAGA movement raised great expectations.  Unfortunately, technology is the new globalization, and a fresh disappointment lies ahead. 

The new American civil war appears to have three political tribes.

First, nearly half of Americans oppose the MAGA movement. They are leaderless, dispirited, cowed and powerless.  Their fragile coalition has shattered, unsure of how to re-build. Their winter of despair will not end soon. This massive tribe is in search of a new leadership, and a new vision. They might do well to adopt the notion of peace, order and good government. 

Second, the populist MAGA movement is real. Mostly white, mostly Evangelic Christian, well-armed, they are the Trump base.  In them, we see the return of the Confederate slave-owning south. It is a tribe that fears immigrants, ignores climate change, wants lower taxes and less government, and is firmly stuck in the 18th century.  The disappointment ahead for them will be bitter.

Third, Trump won over the techno-bros, the ultra-rich who own and control the digital ecosystems. Technology is replacing globalization. In this new era, these billionaire oligarchs seek to rule the digital world. In their vision of the future, nation states can become dictatorships that pay tribute to the transnational broligarchs. That is not a story with a happy ending.

MAGA voters in the second tribe will discover that the broligarchy has betrayed them. The populist promise of low taxes and deregulation is a disaster everywhere, every time. 

Over the coming four years, Canadians can expect to see a bitter struggle between MAGA and the oligarchs. We can expect turmoil and chaos and violence, lasting a generation. Climate events will compete with mass killings to lead the American news of the day. It is possible, but not certain, that a new movement will emerge based on a respect for workers and unions and diversity of every nature, eager to build rather than tear down. The roots of this type of movement in the United States are strong, even in the shadow of defeat.

In Canada, the storm will be fierce. Canadians simply want peace, order, good government and a sustainable planet. This “back to basics” philosophy is already appearing as a response to the chaos of Trump. At the same time, the economic pressures will force Canadians to consider radically new ways to deliver results.

To avoid being bullied during the term of Trump and Vance, Canada needs a counterweight to America’s advantage in power and economic strength. Canada needs friends inside and outside the United States. These allies already exist, but the relations could be stronger.  

Canada can survive by pursuing a Grand Strategy, avoiding direct confrontation, and by flanking and distracting Trump and the oligarchy. Canadians can stop using tools such as Twitter and Facebook. Canada could up the tax social media revenue earned in Canada, and advertising by Canadians on the American social media. A massive tariff could be put on Tesla cars.  Canada could ban Musk’s Starlink service, and replace it with the Canadian satellite alternative. Canadian public sector funds could be pushed to invest in Canada, and green technology in particular.  Public spending on American products, especially military, could be ended. Crypto currencies could be banned as tools of criminal enterprises with no other purpose. There are countless tools to distract and resist, while Canada focuses on new priorities.  It is probable that every one of these is already under consideration by Canadian leaders.

During the American reign of chaos, Canada can use performance measurement to examine issues like health care, education, tax fairness, interprovincial trade and others, and to focus on good government. Canada can review its military strategy in light of lessons from Ukraine and elsewhere, and re-think spending.  

Industrial strategies can be initiated by Canada in a way that attracts foreign investment. These strategies may include transitioning to a hydrogen economy, building Small Modular Reactors, leading the world in green mining, and other initiatives.  Canada could promote regenerative agriculture, Guaranteed Basic Income, and universal health care. Democratic change takes time, and starts with conversation.  

The election of a Conservative majority would put the debate over Canada’s future a step back, more likely to appease than oppose Trump. A Conservative government would be pro-oil, and against efforts to fight climate change.  It would push fossil fuels and try to expand mining with de-regulation and fast track approvals. This would get fail, bogged down. Opposition would be fierce in the courts, and from environmental and Indigenous stakeholders. American investors would see Canada as unfriendly. The NDP and Liberals would face the same winter of despair that American Democrats are now experiencing. 

As in the United States, that situation in Canada would create a political vacuum into which a new, young leadership might emerge. Born out of anger, a new progressive movement would repudiate the cautious mushiness the 20th century legacy parties.  New ideas would be critical.

There are several potential flashpoints that Canada must avoid. Trump would respond with anger, especially if Canada threatened the supply of minerals essential to the military and high-tech sectors.  Likewise, a change to NORAD commitments would be taken as hostile.  The avoidance of confrontation is a tactic, not surrender. It buys time for change.

Lest Canada forget. the United States has a record of invading other countries. Immoral, unnecessary and bloody American wars have been waged in Vietnam, Central America, Afghanistan, Iraq, and other places. The CIA deposed democracy in Iran, installed the Shah, and opened the door to religious extremists. They propped up dictators in Central America, forcing refugees flee the carnage. They overlooked illegal occupation of Palestine, and undermined Israelis who sought peace. All this in the name of the free world, fighting communism and terrorism. 

Canada’s best protection from an American take-over used to be that Canadians would vote Democratic. That would be irrelevant if democracy in the United States had come to an end.  The MAGA movement would have won. There would be nobody to help Canada. 

That is the nightmare scenario. More probable, the chaos of mismanagement, inflation and cuts in government services will pre-occupy America. Canada will feel the pain, but not as much as the Americans who will suffer directly. 

So, what can Canada do in the meantime? The logical path is focus on the destination, deal with events as they arise, and hope that the storm passes. Avoid direct confrontation with Trump. 

The most powerful thing Canada could do is to demonstrate a democratically different way to govern, a beacon of hope.  Canada must show why good government is desirable, possible, and necessary.  We can respect our minorities, re-invent democracy, build a green economy, and debate social issues without hatred. We can fight poverty, inequality, and homelessness. We can show that Constitutions and governments can be renovated, updated, modernised. 

Taken as a whole, Canada can pursue a Grand Strategy that ensures we are a country to be reckoned with, one that our neighbour must respect.